March Madness: Thursday’s Sweet 16 previews

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 previews for Thursday games: Dayton vs. Stanford, Baylor vs. Wisconsin, UCLA vs. Florida and San Diego State vs. Arizona.

 


ALSO SEE:

March Madness: 2014 NCAA Tournament TV schedule

2014 NCAA Women’s Basketball TV schedule

#11 Dayton (25-10, 10-6 A-Ten) vs. #10 Stanford (23-12, 10-8 Pac 12)
7:15pm ET on CBS
Underappreciated and hungry: The most intriguing matchup of the Sweet 16 is the first, one with a Stanford team picked to finish before the season began 6th in the Pac 12 and the other a Dayton team that was probably the 4th best team. As in, 4th best in Ohio. But hey, it wouldn’t be March Madness without a Cinderella (in this case 2). Like most fans, I underrated how well Dayton and Stanford matched up and the parity of college basketball as a whole. Not taking anything away from Dayton, but Ohio State’s and Syracuse’s offenses were not to be trusted at all. If Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross aren’t hitting 3’s and likewise with C.J. Fair, Trevor Cooney, and  Tyler Ennis and you can score in the 50’s, you’ll put your team a great position. The same happened for the Cardinal, who went up against 1 scoring threat in Cameron Bairstow for New Mexico and a younger team that many times settled for jump-shots in Kansas. But as for who will win, the Elite 8 participant in this matchup will be determined by how Dayton shoots from outside. The best 3 outside shooters Stanford has had to worry about so far have been Andrew Wiggins, Nadir Tharpe, and Kendall Williams from New Mexico, who combined for 1-11 from 3. (I’m leaving out Connor Frankcamp only because I don’t think Stanford expected him to play as much as he did.)Dayton won’t be surprising anyone with their 3 point specialist in Jordan Sibert, who’s shooting 42% from behind the line this year. If Stanford plays more man defense this matchup, limits his catches and/or plays a taller defender on him, it will really limit a Dayton offence that is already below average scoring wise.
Winner: Stanford

#6 Baylor (26-11, 9-9 Big 12) vs. #2 Wisconsin (28-7, 12-6 Big 10)
7:47pm ET on TBS
Brady Heslip versus the Badger’s overall offense: Baylor is just one of those teams that you never know what you’re going to get. They started their season at 12-1 with a tough non-conference slate, then went 2-8 to start non-conference play, and now have won 12 out of 14 games. Heslip’s shooting through those 3 stretches illustrates my point.

Brady Heslip’s shooting percentage:
First 13 games: 53.4%
Next 10 games: 42%
Last 14 games: 48.7%

His shooting swings are exactly why I think the Badgers can win this game. I believe they will use 6’8” Sam Dekker to limit his good looks from outside and with an offense that has 6 players that can score in double digits (something that most Badger teams have not had in the Bo Ryan era), they can score with more athletic teams like Oregon in their previous matchup.
Winner: Wisconsin

#4 UCLA (28-8, 12-6 Pac 12) vs. #1 Florida (34-2, 18-0 SEC)
9:45pm ET on CBS
Offense versus Defense: Obviously the clichéd “Offense/Defense” headline isn’t new, but it really holds in this nightcap with the best teams in a matchup squaring off against each other. Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams have lead the way for a team that hasn’t lost in all of March and an offense that’s scoring 82 points per game thanks in part to the 5th most assists per game and 10th best shooting percentage in the country. On the flip side, Florida hasn’t lost since the BEGINNING OF DECEMBER (which oh by the way, was a game winning jumper on the road). Their offence hasn’t exactly been world-beating other than Scottie Wilbekin on fire as of late and Michael Frazier II hitting 3’s, but their calling card is winning any way possible with a defense that ranks 3rd in the country in points per game with a man defense that is stifling. I think if UCLA continues to have quality assist-to-turnover ratios like they’ve done on their winning streak, they will give themselves a chance but I still think Florida will once again find a way to pull out a win.
Winner: Florida

#4 San Diego State (31-4, 16-2 MW) vs. #1 Arizona (32-4, 15-3 Pac 12)
10:17pm ET on TBS
Attacking the hoop: I’ll admit, I didn’t think San Diego State was even going to be in this matchup. I thought their poor shooting would not be able to hold up in the tournament, despite excellent team defense and that North Dakota State would be in this matchup. That said, we’re back to a rematch from mid-November that Arizona pulled out on the road, 69-60. However, it will definitely be a closer game for San Diego St this time around. Last matchup, Xavier Thames (who’s now shooting much better) struggled from the field and Josh Davis was in only his second game since he transferred from Tulane and shot only 1-7 from the field. However, I think Arizona gets the win based on their style of play offensively. As they have a team with slasher’s and attacking players, they will keep the Aztecs in foul trouble, and get in the bonus early in each half.
Winner: Arizona